2024 Emmy Predictions: Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Marcus Jones
We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2024 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 13 to June 24, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 17. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 15 and ends the night of August 26. The 76th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, September 15, and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.
Click on for more of our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards.
The State of the Race
Part of what is helping “Shōgun” from a campaign perspective, outside of just being a great show, is that it has a lot of awards narratives that appeal to different voters. So with star Hiroyuki Sanada, one gets a veteran actor finally taking on a role that showcases his full talent. But with Anna Sawai, voters are getting a young breakout star they can now put their stamp of approval on before she gets even more famous.
In that way, a win for the former J-Pop singer who previously appeared on “Pachinko” and “Monarch: Legacy of Monsters” would be akin to Zendaya receiving the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series the first time — and not just because she would also be beating “The Morning Show” star Jennifer Aniston in the process. Spoilers for “Shōgun” as well, but the added incentive for voting for Sawai is this may be the very last time voters can honor her performance as Lady Mariko.
Nominated alongside “The Morning Show” co-star Reese Witherspoon, who surprisingly has never won an acting Emmy, it feels more likely that voters will wait for the swansong season of the first blockbuster Apple TV+ series to award the Lead Actress in a Drama Emmy to either.
Meanwhile, though the final season of “The Crown” was not glowingly received, one can’t help but point out that both of Imelda Staunton’s predecessors in playing Queen Elizabeth on the Netflix series won the Emmy for the second season playing the role. A win for Staunton does actually have a heavy precedent, and unlike “The Morning Show,” “The Crown” has actually won Outstanding Drama Series before, so it could be considered even more of a TV Academy favorite.
Though their roles are vastly different, “The Gilded Age” star Carrie Coon and “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” star Maya Erskine fit a similar profile of lead actresses who consistently take on well-regarded projects that put them into the orbit of the Emmys, even if they don’t always receive nominations. The recognition here is certainly a step up, and they seem due an Emmy eventually, but there does not seem to be the same urgency in voting for them as there is for some of their fellow nominees.
Nominees are listed below in order of likelihood to win.
Power Rankings:
- Anna Sawai, “Shōgun” (FX)
- Imelda Staunton, “The Crown” (Netflix)
- Carrie Coon, “The Gilded Age” (HBO)
- Maya Erskine, “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
- Reese Witherspoon, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
- Jennifer Aniston, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Will Win: Anna Sawai, “Shōgun”
Could Win: Imelda Staunton, “The Crown”
Should Win: Anna Sawai, “Shōgun”
More Drama Category Predictions:
Outstanding Drama Series
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
You can find IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 76th Emmy Awards here.
Last Year’s Winner: Sarah Snook, “Succession”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: There are no possible streaks here in the traditional sense. It’s been a decade since an actress won this award in back-to-back years. However, Imelda Staunton does have a shot at becoming the third actress to win the Emmy for playing Queen Elizabeth II on “The Crown.” Her predecessors Claire Foya and Olivia Colman both won for their second seasons in the role.
Notable Ineligible Series: Sarah Snook, “Succession” (ended); Elisabeth Moss, “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Season 6 is not eligible); Melanie Lynskey, “Yellowjackets” (Season 3 is not eligible); Bella Ramsey, “The Last of Us” (Season 2 is not eligible); Sharon Horgan, “Bad Sisters” (Season 2 is not eligible); Keri Russell, “The Diplomat” (Season 2 is not eligible)
